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Libya Looks Toward Talks, But Quick Results Unlikely

 投稿者:lovelycat  投稿日:2011年 7月 6日(水)13時16分53秒
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Post by (schmuck günstig) July 2011



The Libyan conflict has been marked by a series of rebel advances followed by Gadhafi's regime counterattacks. Progress on the ground has been slow in spite of more than 5,000 airstrikes by NATO war planes since the end of March.

Some NATO officials have, from time to time, predicted Gadhafi’s imminent downfall, but that has not happened.

Alia Brahimi of the London School of Economics is encouraged by reports of talks to end the conflict. “In Libya the end game has to be a negotiated settlement. I think that the news today is very positive. We’ve always been hoping that there’s been a political process in the background," she said.

Brahimi says there is more to the Libyan regime than Gadhafi and his family. She says some groups - like tribes - are willing to see Gadhafi go if their interests are protected. “The only way out of this was going to be for elements of the regime to defect, to reach an agreement and then for some sort of exit strategy to be provided by them to Gadhafi. And I think the only thing that could make that scenario possible is talks," she said.

Brahimi says talks could allow both sides to avoid having to live up to their shared slogan: fight to the death.

An early advocate of western intervention is former British Ambassador to Libya Richard Dalton. He says pressure from the NATO mission, combined with internal dissent from regime supporters, will ultimately end Gadhafi’s 42-year reign.

But Dalton says it could take another two months or more to hapen. “I do believe that those pressures are steadily building up and that in due course there will be a series of risings against the Libyan regime, against Colonel Gadhafi and his family, of the kind that we saw back in February and which were so savagely suppressed. This time, if it happens I believe the result will be a change of regime in Libya," he said.

Meanwhile, the African Union has been trying to get formal Libyan peace talks going. At the end of their recent summit, leaders endorsed a plan to co-sponsor Libya talks with the United Nations and other international organizations.

But Richard Dalton says an arrest warrant recently issued for Gadhafi by the International Criminal Court makes it difficult for the United Nations to get involved, or for a new Libyan government to allow Gadhafi to stay. "There’s been some talk of him staying in Libya but outside the political struggle. I do think that was always unrealistic. It’s even more unrealistic now that there is an arrest warrant from the ICC against him," he said.

But Dalton says the ICC move will not necessarily make it more difficult for Gadhafi to flee Libya, if he decides to do so, because many countries are willing to ignore the indictment. Other analysts say it does complicate his ability to find refuge.


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New study shows surprising cause for Autism

 投稿者:alovelycat  投稿日:2011年 7月 5日(火)16時33分41秒
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  Post by (schmuck günstig) July 2011


-- Environmental factors play a more important role in causing autism than previously assumed and, surprisingly, an even larger role than genetics, according to a new study out of UCSF and Stanford that could force a dramatic swing in the focus of research into the developmental disorder.

The study, published in Monday's issue of the Archives of General Psychiatry, looked at 192 pairs of twins in California and, using a mathematical model, found that genetics account for about 38 percent of the risk of autism, and environmental factors account for about 62 percent.

Previous twin studies had suggested that autism was highly inheritable, with genetics accounting for roughly 90 percent of all cases worldwide. As such, much recent research into autism has focused on tracking down the genes, and unlocking the complex genetic codes, that are associated with autism.

"We're not trying to say there isn't a genetic component - quite the opposite. But for most individuals with autism spectrum disorder, it's not simply a genetic cause," said Neil Risch, director of the UCSF Institute for Human Genetics who designed the study.

Autism doctors and patient advocates said the study, which will likely be followed up with similar studies of twins and other siblings, could have a significant impact on research into the disorder.
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 投稿者:teacup.運営  投稿日:2011年 7月 5日(火)16時30分34秒
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